Presidential Assassinations and Their Economic Impact

Let’s think about how many American presidents have been assassinated and their impact on markets.

Presidential Assassinations and Their Economic Impact

A few key points that you will learn from this story:

  • The Assassination of Abraham Lincoln
  • Political Intrigues and the Assassination of McKinley
  • The Stock Market's Reaction to Presidential Assassinations
  • Modern Political Divisions and the Impact on U.S. Elections

The Assassination of Abraham Lincoln

The first and most important assassination was in 1865. President Abraham Lincoln, after winning the Civil War, went to a theater for a performance. He was shot with three bullets, and died.

So, he couldn’t complete his second term. With his death, the happiness of the abolition of slavery fell. But nothing spectacular happened to the American economy.

That time, after the Civil War, was actually a fresh start, and the American economy grew enormously in the second half of the 19th century. That’s how the great billionaires appeared—Rockefeller, Carnegie, Vanderbilt, Ford, J.P. Morgan. And that’s how America was built. I recommend, and I’ve recommended before, the movie The Men Who Built America.

Not even 15 years later, James Garfield was assassinated in a train station. Some shots were fired at him, but he wasn’t killed instantly. No, his doctor was the one to blame. This was in 1881. They treated him with some instruments that weren’t sterile, and as a result, the president died of septicemia 8 or 9 days later.

Political Intrigues and the Assassination of McKinley

Then, there’s a very important assassination I want to discuss in detail, from the end of the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th century. In the election of 1900, John D. Rockefeller gathered all his competitors—the other great billionaires, Carnegie, J.P. Morgan, and so on.

These three formed the core, and Rockefeller said, "Guys, we must pool our money together and re-elect President McKinley. Because if we don’t, our opponents will break our monopolies. And without monopolies, we’re no longer the richest people, and we no longer control the law in the United States."

By then, the oil monopoly was 100% Rockefeller’s. It was a situation similar to today’s big tech monopolies—Apple, Google, Amazon, Facebook, and so on. That’s why I want to go into detail—because there are similarities to today’s situation. Someone will eventually have to break these big tech monopolies if we want to move forward.

There were two people who wanted to challenge McKinley—the Democratic candidate and especially Teddy Roosevelt. Teddy was a young politician, just 42, who was part of the Republican Party. He didn’t agree with President McKinley. He wanted to be his challenger, and what he wanted most was to break up the monopolies so the American economy could truly be competitive and free.

Morgan puts a lot of money into it, and they manage to re-elect McKinley as president in 1900 for his second term. And they make another brilliant move. They think about which position in the United States has a title but no real power. The position of vice president. They propose to Teddy Roosevelt to be vice president. Teddy Roosevelt becomes vice president, which means he’s no longer a senator and can’t cause any more trouble.

McKinley continues with the same policies, helping the monopolies. All good and fine. But then, someone comes along and assassinates McKinley. McKinley dies, and that’s it—the whole plan falls apart in one day. Suddenly, their enemy, Teddy Roosevelt, is parked in the vice president’s seat and becomes the youngest president in U.S. history.

What did Teddy Roosevelt do next? I've told you before, but I'll say it again. He went after the monopolies. First, he broke up the famous Standard Oil company—Exxon, Chevron, Texaco, Mobil. Sure, today Exxon reunited with one of those companies, and Chevron merged with Texaco, and we now have ExxonMobil and ChevronTexaco.

But at the time, things changed dramatically. There were huge trials, and Rockefeller himself was targeted. He was seen as the man who plundered America and exploited the people, even though he undeniably helped grow the capitalist economy, but to an extreme "jungle capitalism" level. We have to admit, though, that this move was timely and necessary. But it only happened because of an assassination.

The Stock Market's Reaction to Presidential Assassinations

The next assassination is also the most famous one—you know it very well. I have to tell you how the markets reacted to McKinley’s assassination first. You can imagine that the stock market was under the control of Rockefeller, J.P. Morgan, and Carnegie. When McKinley was assassinated, the Wall Street stock market dropped—the Dow Jones Index fell by over 6%, the biggest drop after a president’s assassination.

And now we get to the assassination of John Fitzgerald Kennedy. It happened during the Cold War, after the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, which Kennedy handled admirably, and after the Americans had already started getting involved in Vietnam.

A lot has been written about it, but even today, no one really knows who killed Kennedy. There are thousands of theories, speculations, and many investigations. The Warren Commission did everything, except maybe find the truth.

I’m not going to talk about the political aspects of Kennedy’s assassination here. I’ll focus on the stock market and the economy. After the 1929 crash, it took the Dow Jones Index almost 36 years to reach the 600 level it had before the crash.

The Dow Jones fell from 600 points to 42 points, which remains the historical low, in 1932. It took 36 years to recover, finally reaching 600 again. Those who bought in '29 could only sell at a gain 36 years later.

After Kennedy’s assassination, the stock market dropped 2.9%, but it didn’t stop. What’s important is that the U.S. stock market has never stopped for any assassination—not even for the Pearl Harbor attack on December 7, 1941.

The only time the U.S. stock market shut down was after the September 11 attacks, and it was for a long four days. That decision was more about Alan Greenspan, who was the governor of the Federal Reserve at the time—and it was a good decision.

When Kennedy was assassinated, the market dropped 2.9%, but it rebounded. Kennedy was a much-loved president, unlike McKinley, who wasn’t as popular.

Lincoln? Well, Lincoln became a beloved figure for Americans long after his death. During the Civil War, half the population—the Southern states—hated him because they were on the losing side. The fact that John Wilkes Booth, Lincoln’s assassin, was a Southerner proves this.

But the more important moment I want to talk about is the assassination attempt on Ronald Reagan. Even though this attempt had serious repercussions on Reagan's health, the attempt was made by a lunatic who was also a Republican Party member.

This guy, Hinckley, shot Reagan not for political reasons but because he was obsessed with Jodie Foster. He was a little crazy—wrote to Jodie Foster over 200 letters. When she didn’t respond, he figured the best way to get her attention was to leave her a goodbye letter and go shoot Reagan.

I don’t think Reagan, nor Trump today, would ever blame these assassination attempts on the Second Amendment, which allows any crazy person to buy a gun. It’s a right to own and defend yourself with firearms—an issue that always comes up in every presidential election. Trump, with both hands, supports the Second Amendment and the American’s right to buy guns, even from a supermarket.

But here’s something interesting: Ronald Reagan was already old when the attempt happened. Now, more than 45 years later, analysts agree that Reagan was never really the same after the shooting, and it was his inner circle who ran the show after that.

They ran America well. Reagan won another term and managed to end the Cold War. Even though the American economy didn’t do great under Reagan—especially with the big crash in 1987, when the Dow Jones dropped 22% in a day—it’s clear the assassination attempt had an impact on his mental and intellectual abilities.

Modern Political Divisions and the Impact on U.S. Elections

Now, why has America reached a point in the early 21st century where we see assassination attempts on presidents or presidential candidates? Some say it’s because of the division. America is divided—immigrants vs. Americans, Americans vs. immigrants. All this division, which we see not only in America but also in Italy, Germany, France, and beyond, doesn’t lead humanity to good things.

We’ll have to see what happens in the U.S. elections this year. Trump is still around, trying to boost his image wherever he can.

The only question is whether the Democrats can convince Biden to step down. If Biden withdraws, a new candidate could still have a chance, but it’s slim because there’s little time to build up enough support to defeat Trump.

It’s not that Trump is a good candidate, but most Americans are willing to vote against someone, whether it’s Trump or Biden. So, if a third candidate steps in, they could collect all the “anti” votes. That’s where we are now. It’s like how we use to vote for the “lesser evil”. Unfortunately, that’s the reality.

I’ll keep you updated on the U.S. elections and how it affects the stock market. As I’ve said before, Trump’s election could initially send the market soaring, but the American economy, which is currently doing well, never did better than during Biden’s term.

Not because Biden was running the show, but his team was. If America leaves Europe alone to face the Russian bear, it won’t be good for world peace or the global economy.

In the meantime, I wish maximum health on both Donald Trump and Biden. Here’s a joke for you to end on: The Democrats convinced Biden to resign, telling him he’s already been president twice and can’t run again.


Thank you for reading! Don't forget to subscribe to stay updated whenever I publish a new story.